When the St. John’s Johnnies and Bethel Royals face off this weekend in Arden Hills, the home team will be trying to make history: it’s been over twenty years since the Johnnies have lost to the same school in three straight seasons (St. Olaf, 1984-86). The significance of this weekend’s contest is even more amazing when you consider the modest beginnings of what is quickly becoming one of the MIAC’s most competitive rivalries.
The Johnnies had to have been full of confidence when they made the trip to Arden Hills in the fall of 1999. They were 4-0 at the time and had a talented team, led by quarterback Tom Linneman and the linebacking duo of Brandon Novak and Beau LaBore, that would make a deep playoff run later in the season. Twenty times the schools had met on the gridiron and twenty times the Johnnies came away victorious, with little reason to expect anything different in 1999. When the dust settled on that gloomy October day (if there can be dust on a field that, on a rain-free day, was surprisingly wet), the Royals had 24 points to the Johnnies’ 20 and a new era had begun in the MIAC. Since that year, either the Johnnies or Royals have been atop the conference standings every season but one (Concordia, 2004).
If that string is to continue in 2008, the Johnnies will likely have to end their losing streak against the Royals this weekend. Having already lost to Concordia, St. John’s can ill afford another MIAC loss and already need help if they hope to win the conference crown. Following a run to the national semifinals in 2007 and a preseason #5 ranking by d3football.com, a season of high expectations has quickly turned sour for Bethel. The Royals are currently 1-3 overall and 0-2 in MIAC play, including an embarrassing homecoming loss to perennial doormat Carleton.
Here’s how the JohnnieFootball.com contributors see this week’s game playing out (hint: if you love defensive football, you’re in for a treat!):
DuffMan: The lead-up to a normal Johnnie/Royal games is usually quite intense. Typically, the stakes are high and both teams bring stellar records into the match up. This season feels different. The Royals are just 1-3, the Johnnies are 3-1, but have looked less than flawless, and neither team has settled on a permanent quarterback. The Royals have their potent running back, Logan Flannery, in the backfield, but gone is the explosive offensive line that paved the way for him last year. Jordan Hansel looked good for the Johnnies last week, so I hope he will make the start in Arden Hills, continuing where he left off last Saturday.
On paper, the Johnnies should win this match up. But, the Royals often times spoil those plans. I predicted a Johnnie loss last year, and I was right. I would imagine that loss still stings the Johnnies, and I expect a better outcome this year. St John’s 28, Bethel 20.
DustySJU: Like the rest of my Johnnie classmates celebrating their 25th class reunion in Collegeville last Saturday — some having not been on campus since graduation — I was frustrated, bored, excited and pleased. So went the carousel of Johnnie quarterbacking and the eventual downfield outburst from QB Jordan Hansel and the Johnnie wide receivers. Expect another downpour from the Johnnie passing game. After all, it’s payback. St. John’s 34, Bethel 21.
JohnnieEsq: It is a strange scenario: the Johnnies, whose seniors should be those recruited after the Sweet Season and should be among the best and brightest in the MIAC, are middling at 3-1 and have looked nothing short of shaky in all four games this year. On the other hand, the Royals, one year removed from their own tear through the West Region have shown a surprising lack of depth in their pipeline, losing three straight games with perhaps the one they knew to be their toughest on their schedule back in August coming up. This is a must-win for both programs, as SJU has struggled since 1999 in Arden Hills, and BU must break their losing streak for the long-term strength of the program, as 4 straight losses highlights a weakness in their football teams.
So what happens? St. John’s strong run defense overpowers Bethel’s one-dimensional offense — that is, unless the Johnnies’ propensity to give the ball over allows BU’s opportunistic offense a short field. I still don’t think St. John’s has settled on a QB, and while Bethel has not either, it won’t matter — Bethel cannot live on Flannery alone, as special teams and defense wins this one. St. John’s 20, Bethel 8.
Johnnie Tats: As with last week’s tilt, this is yet another “must win” game for the Johnnies. Unfortunately every game for the remainder of the 2008 regular season will be a must win scenario for John Gagliardi and the team. I so want to believe that the Johnnies will surprise me and not play such a close game, but rather post a blow-out as they did in 2007 against Concordia. We are still unsettled at QB, have little to no running game and, at best, adequate line blocking. Also I am still suspect in regards to the secondary. And let’s be honest, Bethel is very good. However, the defensive line and Ryan Wimmer will continue to carry us (since God is a Johnnie!). St. John’s 13, Bethel 10.
Mr.Shoes: I’ve been to three football games in Arden Hills. Three times I’ve left bitterly disappointed. Yet, all three times the Johnnies rebounded from the loss to make the NCAA DIII playoffs. This year I fear a loss won’t be so easily overcome. The MIAC is shaping up to be a topsy-turvy conference and I highly doubt a team with two conference losses will land in the field of 32 come November. Knowing John like I do (read: not too well, but well enough), the team knows this and will be showing up at Bethel ready to make a serious statement. Last year, two good offenses were shut down by two better defenses. This year, I expect that two excellent defenses will completely shut down two struggling offenses. A few turnovers will be the story, but I foresee guys in white and red making those plays. St. John’s 13, Bethel 9.
Ritz: Funny thing how a team can be 3-1 and, in the minds of many fans, be a disappointment. That is where the Johnnies stand now. How can this be changed? By making an example of a struggling and truly disappointing Bethel team (read: 1-3) in their house. Looking at the limited scope of Bethel’s offense so far this year and the struggles they have had scoring (16.5 ppg), I do not worry about our defense’s ability to shut them down. What makes me worry, however, is the fact that the Royal’s defense has been playing very well all year. That being said, if we can avoid running option to the short side of the field more than 10 times during the game, the Johnnies should be able to walk out of Arden Hills with a victory. Sadly, I do not see the Johnnies being able to run the ball, and that will allow Bethel to focus and scheme to shut down other aspects of the Johnnie O. Look for a Ben Dimond bases-clearing double in the top of the 9th and the Johnnie D to come in and shut Bethel down in the home half of the inning. St. John’s 3, Bethel 2.
SJU Section 105: The Johnnies’ travels to Arden Hills in recent years have been disappointing. The miscues of seasons gone by should not have an impact on the St. John’s gameplan today. These are different players, making their own winning and losing streak with another MIAC foe. Bethel has lost some studs from last year’s team and their early season record has shown this. I think it’s the Johnnies turn to begin a winning streak against the Royals. This will still be a battle in the trenches, so it will be a relatively low scoring affair. St. John’s 17, Bethel 10.
TC: Over the past couple of seasons, the Royals’ dominance over the Johnnies along the offensive and defensive lines has been dramatically apparent. St. John’s has had little answer for Bethel’s power rushing attack and even less success trying to mount an offensive attack of their own. Unfortunately, I don’t see much changing this season.
While Bethel has lost a little of its beef on the offensive line, they still feature one of the most talented backs in the conference in Logan Flannery. I don’t think either team is going to light up the scoreboard, with St. John’s having difficulty finding offensive cohesion against a still-formidable Royal defense. Remember what happened when St. John’s struggling offensive line took on the MIAC’s other premier defensive front, Concordia? Expect more of the same Saturday. Bethel 14, St. John’s 7.
