It certainly hasn’t been easy, but the Johnnies have managed to navigate the first two months of their schedule without suffering a defeat. Following the bye week and entering the stretch drive and playoff push, St. John’s finds itself 8-0 and in control of its own playoff and MIAC conference championship destinies.
For a program as storied as St. John’s, though, the truly elite teams aren’t defined by regular season success or conference crowns. For the 2009 Johnnies to rank among the best teams in school history, they will need to buck recent trends and make a deep run in the playoffs.
As the team takes a week’s sabbatical of rest and remedy, let’s take a glass half full/glass half empty look at a few aspects of the 2009 Johnnies.
THE OFFENSE
Glass Half Full: The Johnnies’ 2008 offense never got on track. Much of the blame went to the “quarterback-by-committee” approach, as three different signal callers saw considerable action before Joe Boyle won sole possession of the starting job late in the season. While the quarterback carousel of a season ago didn’t do the offense any favors, the real culprit was a rushing “attack” that averaged just 2.7 yards per carry (9th in the MIAC, bettering only pass-first Augsburg’s 2.6 ypc).
With the quarterback situation settled entering 2009, the Johnnies turned their attention to finding a running back or five that could bolster the ground game. And they have been largely successful: not only have Jakob Reding and Kellen Blaser emerged as hard-running, workhorse backs, but youngsters Jimmy Loonan, Harry Awe, and Stephen Johnson have all shown flashes of brilliance in limited duty. Those five backs have combined to average 4.6 yards per carry and the Johnnies rank 2nd in the MIAC with nearly 190 rushing yards per game. The last time the Johnnies rushed for more than 190 yards per game was the national championship season of 2003.
And that is the hidden impact of an improved rushing game. Come playoff time, when cold weather, ice and snow threaten to ground even the most explosive passing offenses, teams need to be able to consistently run the ball, something recent Johnnie vintages simply haven’t been able to do. Since 2005, they have rushed for 59, 40, 34, and 29 yards in season-ending playoff losses.
If this year’s Johnnies find playoff success, there’s a good chance it will be due to a suddenly stout offensive line and their deep stable of running backs. Expect to see increased roles for Loonan, Awe and Johnson down the stretch and into the playoffs. They should be rested and healthy against increasingly beat up defenses.
Glass Half Empty: While the Johnnie running game has returned to relevance, the passing game has slid from intriguing to nearly non-existent. Joe Boyle started the season on fire, throwing 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions in the season’s first four games, while throwing for over 215 yards per outing. He followed the scorching start with a 3 interception game against Bethel and has been hampered by an injured throwing hand ever since.
When Boyle was forced out of the St. Olaf game after reinjuring his hand, backup quarterbacks John Ries and Sam Verschaetse were pressed into action with disappointing results. The three combined to complete just 5 of 11 passes for 40 yards.
With the playoffs on the horizon, Boyle sits with his throwing hand in a cast and his status—for next week’s game against Augsburg and possibly beyond—in considerable doubt. It will be interesting to see how the team uses the bye week. If the Johnnies aren’t able to muster a better passing attack the rest of the season than they managed against the Oles it won’t matter how well they are running the ball. They will be too one-dimensional to beat any of a handful of dangerous teams they could run into come playoff time.
THE DEFENSE:
Glass Half Full: The St. John’s defense started slowly, allowing points and yards in bunches in the first three games of the season, but has really rounded into shape over the past month. After allowing at least 370 yards and 19 points to UW-River Falls, UW-Eau Claire, and Concordia to open the year, the Johnnies haven’t allowed more than 295 yards or 14 (non-overtime) points since.
Most importantly, the defense has come up big in the biggest spots. The defense forced a key 4th quarter 3-and-out against Bethel to set up the miracle last-second, game-winning field goal. St. Thomas, the MIAC’s highest scoring offense by a healthy margin, was kept off the scoreboard for three quarters and scored both of their 4th quarter touchdowns on short fields created by special teams miscues. After starting quarterback Joe Boyle was knocked out of the St. Olaf game, essentially killing the Johnnies offense, the defense stepped up and held the Oles to a single field goal.
One of the keys to the defense’s improvement is young players gaining experience throughout the season. Numerous underclassmen have been thrust into starting roles this year: sophomores Evan Cobb and Mike Bonynge and freshmen cornerbacks Alex Powell, Kevin Wenner, and Ian Goldsmith have all started on defense for the Johnnies this year. Those players should only get better as they become more and more familiar with their roles. Inexperience certainly shouldn’t be a factor come playoff time.
Glass Half Empty: For the second year in a row, pre-season All-American Nick Gunderson suffered a serious knee injury. Last year, a torn ACL suffered in the season opener knocked him out for the year. This year, he plans to play through a similar injury. Understandably, Gunderson hasn’t shown the same explosiveness he exhibited prior to suffering the injuries and it’s impossible to expect much from him the rest of the season. There isn’t a single defense in the country that wouldn’t be significantly weakened by a serious injury to a player as good as Gunderson.
These aren’t the point-a-minute, quick-strike Johnnies of yesteryear. The 2009 Johnnies need to rely on their rushing offense to burn the clock and their defense to keep them in close games. The defense has played well against MIAC foes, but if Gunderson can’t be an explosive presence in the middle of the defensive line, drawing double teams and hurrying the quarterback, it creates a cascade effect throughout the defense. That could lead to significant issues against the elite offenses the Johnnies will see in the playoffs. And if the defense digs a hole for the offense against a playoff-caliber team, chances are the offense won’t be able to dig its way out.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Glass Half Full: Russell Gliadon has made field goals of 49 and 52 yards this season. For St. John’s. No, really. I’m as shocked as you are.
Glass Half Empty: As a loyal Johnnie fan, you shouldn’t be surprised that pretty much every other aspect of special teams has been an adventure for St. John’s this season.
Despite making the two longest field goals in school history, Gliadon is only 4-for-8 on field goal attempts this season—or, more precisely, 2-for-6 on non-historic field goal attempts. He has also missed two extra points, including one that would have tied the score in the final two minutes of the game against Bethel.
Speaking off iffy propositions, the Johnnies have developed a troubling habit of bouncing long snaps, including a missed audible that led to a St. Thomas game-tying touchdown.
The kick return game is also sorely lacking explosiveness. The Johnnies are averaging less than 20 yards per kick return and a MIAC-worst 3.6 yards per punt return.
As great as it is to see St. John’s converting a couple of really long field goal tries, if they aren’t able to eliminate the numerous special teams mistakes they are making it is difficult to take them seriously as a threat in the playoffs.
THE FIELD
Glass Half Full: The Johnnies have already passed their biggest conference tests, narrowly sneaking past Bethel and St. Thomas in Collegeville. With two weeks to go in the regular season, St. John’s knows right where they stand in regards to postseason play: Win one of two remaining games against Augsburg and Carleton and they make the NCAA field as an at-large selection and likely hit the road for a first round game. Win both of their remaining games and they make the field as the MIAC conference champion and gain a top seed—possibly the #1 seed and homefield advantage—in the West Region.
Once again, the West Region looks tough—UW-Whitewater, St. John’s, Linfield, and Central (IA) are all undefeated and ranked in the top 6 in the D3Football.com Top 25. However, with so many top teams clustered in the West Region, it’s very possible that Johnnie-nemesis UW-Whitewater is moved out of region like they were under similar circumstances in 2007. UW-Whitewater and Mount Union are widely considered to be the best two teams in the country this year. Outside those two teams, though, St. John’s shouldn’t be considered a substantial underdog to any other playoff team. If things break right for the Johnnies, a run to the national semifinals isn’t out of the question.
Glass Half Empty: Of course, they don’t give big, shiny trophies for winning a few playoff games and losing valiantly to UW-Whitewater or Mount Union. If they did, St. John’s might as well just build a new trophy case—5 of their past 9 seasons have ended with a playoff loss to one of the Purple Powers.
The story should be much the same this year. A run to the national championship—or even just a trip to Salem, VA—would almost assuredly require the Johnnies to pull off a stunning upset or two.
As a tremendously exciting regular season nears a close, it looks like there could be an equally intriguing postseason in store for Johnnie fans. A pessimist could easily argue that St. John’s has been rather fortunate to make it through October without a loss, and the team faces an early playoff exit if they aren’t able to rediscover their ability to pass the ball. At the same time, if the playoff bracket sets up favorably for St. John’s, they have the strong rushing game and defense that is required to win playoff football games. Stock up on Tums and enjoy what should be an exciting conclusion to the 2009 season.
