Inside the Numbers: Augsburg Recap

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TC
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12 November 2008 8:00 pm
Block by Greg Sowden.  Photo courtesy of Jeff Sowden.

Block by Greg Sowden. Photo courtesy of Jeff Sowden.

The Augsburg Auggies took a gigantic leap forward on the football field in 2007, finishing the season 5-5 after winning a total of 4 games the previous 3 seasons. But the proverbial rising tide didn’t lift all boats for the Auggies—they lost their 10th straight matchup with the St. John’s Johnnies by an embarrassing 62-7 margin.

Still, Augsburg entered 2008 with high hopes: they returned the dynamic Jordan Berg-to-Royce Winford pitch-and-catch combo, received consideration in the preseason Top 25 by D3Football.com, and knew that another step forward this season could put them in contention for the MIAC championship. While the Auggies will need to beat Bethel in their season finale to finish with a winning record and improve on their 2007 mark, the program’s continued progress showed up on the scoreboard as they narrowed the margin against the Johnnies to 28-21.

Here’s a look at some of the numbers from that cold, windy contest in Collegeville:

A Good Run: The typical Johnnie offense is a portrait of balance, mixing nearly equal parts strong running game with explosive passing attack. The 2008 season, however, has seen a dramatic departure from the balance of recent teams; the Johnnies have run the ball 369 times while attempting only 233 passes (a run percentage of 61.2%). To put that total in perspective, since 2001 the Johnnies have never had a season where they ran more than 58.5% of the time (2004) and have a cumulative run percentage of 53.9%.

Even more shocking are the games that the Johnnies virtually abandon the passing game altogether. Against the Auggies, the Johnnies passed the ball 16 times and ran it 48 times, a staggering 75% run percentage. That’s four opponents, and 3 of the last 4, that the Johnnies ran against more than 73% of the offensive plays: UW-River Falls (73.0%), Hamline (74.1%), St. Thomas (81.0%) and Augsburg. If you eliminate an uncharacteristic three game run against Concordia, Gustavus, and Bethel, during which the Johnnies ran the ball only 45% of the time and lost two of three games, the Johnnies have run the ball an astonishing 71% of the time in their other six games.

There are a myriad of factors for this discrepancy. In addition to the Johnnies’ unsettled quarterback situation, St. John’s fell behind Bethel and Concordia early and were forced to throw the ball to try to regain the lead and the windy and/or cold weather against UW-River Falls, St. Thomas, and Augsburg, especially, favored running the ball over the pass. With another cold and potentially wet day expected this Saturday in Northfield, expect the Johnnies to keep the ball on the ground almost exclusively.

Getting Their Kicks: Speaking of the weather, the Johnnies and Auggies battled a stiff 20 MPH wind out of the north (almost directly from the end zone near the Palaestra to the end zone near the scoreboard). Not only did this force St. John’s to ground their air attack, it also led to John Gagliardi pulling one of his old tricks: taking the wind and kicking off to start both halves. (Those with a sharp memory will remember that the Johnnies have successfully used the same strategy a few times, most notably in the 2003 Stagg Bowl win over Mount Union.)

The strategy seemed to pay off both times–on defense, at least. The Auggies started at their own 25 yard line, gained 11 yards in 4 plays, and punted back to the Johnnies in the first quarter and began the second half at their own 30, totaling 3 plays and 9 yards before punting to start the third quarter. While the Johnnies got the ball back in decent field position on their first offensive drive of both halves, they squandered any opportunity to convert that field position into points by giving the ball back to Augsburg via turnovers.

Jimmy Gagliardi was more willing to pass the ball with the wind at his offense’s backs. In the first and third quarters, the Johnnies attempted 11 passes, completing 5 of them for 77 yards and an interception. While the passes into the wind were less frequent, the Johnnies did have some success on them: Joe Boyle completed 4 of his 5 second and fourth quarter attempts for 24 yards and a score. Boyle’s one incompletion into the wind may or may not have been attributable to the weather—he missed a wide open Bryan Busack in the end zone in the second quarter one play before connecting with him for a 15-yard touchdown pass.

Nowhere to Run: Fortunately for the Auggies, they don’t mind passing and passing often because the Johnnie defense completely shut down the Augsburg running game. The St. John’s defense had begun to show some uncharacteristic cracks in its run prevention in previous games, allowing four straight opponents (Bethel, Hamline, St. Thomas, and St. Olaf) to gain over 100 yards on the ground. They responded by holding the Auggies to 14 rushing yards on 15 attempts, both season lows and the first time St. John’s held an opponent to less than a yard per carry in 2008 after turning the trick twice last season (Marietta, 35 carries for 26 yards, and Carleton, 28 carries for no yards).

While they were stymied on the ground, Augsburg was still able to achieve new highs for St. John’s opponents this year in pass completions (30), passing yards (328), passing touchdowns (3), and points scored (21). This is a concern entering Saturday’s title match with Carleton as the Knights are the only MIAC offense with a passing attack that approximates Augsburg’s. This weekend’s game likely will come down to the Johnnies’ ability to match Carleton passing touchdowns with scores of their own on the ground.

Quick Hits: Defensive end/strong safety John Stanton marked his first collegiate start by causing a sack on Augsburg’s first drive and recording his first career interception… Punter Russell Gliadon appeared unaffected by the windy conditions as he landed three of his five punts inside the Augsburg 20-yard line, converted all four of his extra points without issue, and booted a 55-yard punt… Quarterback Joe Boyle’s 2 rushing touchdowns give him a team-leading 4 on the season. His 16 rushing attempts led all ballcarriers… Ben Vanderheyden managed only 32 receiving yards (compared to his per-game average of 87 yards entering the day), but it was good enough to make him the St. John’s receiving leader for the fifth straight week… Defensive tackle Kyle Schroeder recorded his first two quarterback sacks on the season… The announced attendance of 4,169 was the smallest crowd at Clemens Stadium for an MIAC game since 2,847 saw the Johnnies beat the Cobbers 35-14 in the 2000 finale.