With fall sports just kicking off, and a full school year to follow, Concordia Sports Information Director Jim Cella’s schedule is busy and getting busier. Still, in what can only be a testament to the increasingly competitive nature of the St. John’s/Concordia football rivalry, he set aside some time to share his thoughts on this weekend’s games.
While Jim was reluctant to go on record with a predicted final score, he was kind enough to provide us with his (highly entertaining) dream outcome for Saturday’s game. Enjoy!
Jim Cella: First off let me state that what you are about to read in this piece are the opinions of an MIAC football fan and do not reflect the views of Concordia College, the Cobber athletic department or the football team which I represent for most of the year.
The best thing about games played between teams at the top of the MIAC is that they are generally determined by an outstanding play or player(s), and not by one team having an absolute nightmare of a game and coming away looking like Notre Dame against Georgia Tech/Penn State/Michigan or the Gophers against Florida Atlantic HS. The past three games between Concordia and St. John’s have all featured big plays by players who have risen to the occasion.
In 2004, the Cobbers had quarterback Brian Schumacher rush for 114 yards, throw for 74 more, not turn the ball over and generally put the Cobbers on his back for the entire game. Throw in kicker Brian Halverson’s late-game clutch kick and you have a CC 21-20 win for the ages.
Two years ago – I don’t think they played. At least I can’t remember the game or I’ve blocked it out of my memory. Looking at the box score it seems that someone named Kyle “Freakin’” Gearman (who I hope has taken a job as an International Business Consultant, and is currently stationed on the opposite side of the world, so that any remaining Mojo he possesses hasn’t accidentally rubbed off on any SJU player named Weber or Vanderheyden) caught a 74-yard pass to win the game. Hmmm…might have to see if there is any tape of that one, must have been exciting.
In 2006, the Johnnie defense rose to the occasion and stopped the Cobbers four straight times from inside the 10-yard line in the final two minutes of play to come away with the win. Three SJU offensive players also came up with big plays. Mike Lofboom threw a perfect strike to ol’ whats-his-name and then running back Mike Patnode came up with the game-winning 32-yard TD run in the decisive fourth quarter. The other player that stepped up last year was backup quarterback Michael Crees. Say what you will, but after Alex Kofoed went down in the opening quarter - and every Johnnie fan nearly threw up watching him being taken to the sidelines - Crees came on and kept the Johnnies around until the fourth quarter. He might not have won the game but he definitely did not cost his team the game.
Fast forward to last week in Moorhead where the same thing happened in the Cobber/Bethel shootout. The game was won, not lost. Royal quarterback Ben Wetzell had an unbelievable game and made two plays that I didn’t think anyone could make without playing on Sunday. Freshman running back Logan Flannery was also impressive. He is the real deal and will be tough to handle for MIAC defenses in the next three-plus years. He is quicker than Phil Porta in getting to the corner and can make people miss in the open field. However, unlike Porta, he is much easier to bring down once you have him cornered (how a kid with the name Logan Flannery, who comes from a suburb of Minneapolis, doesn’t wind up wearing Purple and Silver is beyond me).
I think Saturday’s game will once again feature a team or player/players that will step up and win the game. You have two of the best-coached teams in the conference and they rarely will make enough mistakes to hand the other team the game.
The other key in the game will come from the play of the offensive and defensive lines. This has always been the biggest factor for the Cobbers when they have had success. On offense, they want to be able to run the ball at will, and wear down the other team’s defense so in the fourth quarter they have a chance to pull out the win.
The most telling statistic for this line of questioning comes in time of possession. CC had more time of possession against MSU Moorhead and Dickinson State, both wins, but then came out on the wrong side of the stat against Bethel.
In 2004, when CC upset the Johnnies, the Cobber offense held onto the ball for 40:58. I know that head coach Terry Horan understands this fact. I also know that he was not happy with the team being beaten in time of possession by the Royals. He is going to want to hold onto the ball to try and accomplish two things. First, wear down the SJU defense and second, keep the St. John’s high-powered offense off the field (which keep Kofoed from having any chance to work a little magic). It has worked the past three seasons and it will need to work on Saturday for CC to have any chance at all.
That brings me to one clarification for the SJU faithful. Don’t believe the rumors that Concordia has suddenly turned into Air Cobber. Any Johnnie fans thinking they will see a reformed Concordia offense on Saturday will be sorely mistaken. The only reason they threw the ball so much against Bethel is because they felt they could exploit Bethel’s pass defense. The sudden switch in offensive play calling nearly had the Lutheran faithful, who are mostly in their 60’s and 70’s, asking for medics to revive their weakening hearts.
Fear not. Like us Catholics who party too hard on Saturday night and then have to go to confession during the week because we feel guilty about all the fun we had, the Cobber offense will be heading into the confessional at about 1 p.m. on Saturday and will be prepared to do penance by reciting a steady stream of Hail Options and Our Off Tackles.
They have averaged 58.6 rushes per game in the last three meetings and I would be surprised if Saturday’s total falls short of that mark (side note – in the team’s two wins this year they ran the ball 71 times against MSU Moorhead and 61 times vs. Dickinson State).
The final thing that stands out to me, when rehashing the past three games between the two teams, is the way the Cobber defense has been able to stymie the St. John’s offense on third down and inside the red zone. In 2004, CC held SJU to 4-of-11 on third down and only allowed the Johnnies to get inside the red zone once, and did not allow a score. In 2005, SJU was limited to 4-of-16 on third down and 2-of-5 inside the 20-yard line. Last year was more of the same, as the Johnnies were only 2-of-10 on third down and went 0-for-2 in the red zone.
This year SJU is converting on 41.0% of their chances on third down and have scored on 78.0% of their chances inside the 20-yard line. That’s where the Cobber defensive line comes into the picture. If CC can get pressure on Kofoed and disrupt the rhythm of the SJU offense, then have a chance to hold St. John’s to similar numbers as in the past three games. If the Johnnies can be successful in those game-changing situations and remain close to their season averages, the game will not have a chance to come down to the final minutes of play.
Well, that’s my extremely long-winded take on the game. I wish I was going to be in Collegeville to see the game but duty calls and I will be attending the Cobber soccer and volleyball contests. Hey, you know that Concordia is ranked 11th in the nation in volleyball and has gone to the NCAA Tournament the past four season? No, I didn’t think you did!
As far as predictions go, TC wanted me to come up with a score but I told him it was a no-win situation. Instead I will leave you with what I will be dreaming for on Saturday:
Cobber junior wide receiver Nick Alton, who has to switch jerseys during the game because of the blood rule, changes to No.19 and proceeds to catch a 74-yard pass from Jesse Nelson along the Concordia sideline heading into the end zone by the Warner Palaestra. The score with 00:13 seconds on the clock caps an improbable CC comeback. Witnessing the event, SJU play-by-play announcer Mark Lewandowski collapses due to the shock, and has to be revived by color man Bryan Backes. Backes uses mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to get Lewandowski back on his feet just in time to let the audience know that “that life-saving moment was brought to you by the good folks at Bernick’s Pepsi Cola.”
Whatever happens, I know it will be a great game between the two classiest teams in the league and the fans will be treated to a classic fall afternoon in Collegeville. Concordia 20, St. John’s 16.
