JohnnieFootball.com brings you an early look at the first preview of regional rankings set to be released by the NCAA this Wednesday.
UWW leads the pack once again
It’s still a little early to be thinking playoffs (since there are three weeks left in the regular season), but not too early to start looking at how the NCAA will view potential post-season placements.
So here’s a shot at how the NCAA may come down with its regional rankings that we anticipate will come out this week.
First, by way of background, this is a look at the NCAA’s possible regional rankings. The regional rankings are NOT necessarily indicative of how the playoff matchups will shake out; rather, it is a comparison of potential playoff teams done by the NCAA’s playoff selection committee using the selection criteria that gives an indication as to where potential playoff teams stand in relation to one another. In short, it gives a great way to measure where teams will stand for seeding purposes and allows the pundits to start the speculation as to the actual playoff matchups!
Note that the Regional Rankings do not tell us who will make the playoffs, nor do they tell us where teams will eventually end up come playoff time—for example, last year Northwestern of Roseville was ranked in the regional rankings only to come up on the short end of the Pool B stick; furthermore, Mount Union, which was a #1 regionally ranked team in the North, was shifted to the East region for the playoffs. So don’t hold these as hard-and-fast playoff predictors—keep some suspense for Selection Sunday!
So what will the West look like when the regional rankings may come out this week? Here’s a best guess:
1. UW-Whitewater Overall 7-0 Against Regional Opponents 5-0
2. St. John’s Overall 8-0 Against Regional Opponents 8-0
3. Linfield Overall 7-0 Against Regional Opponents 5-0
4. Central Overall 8-0 Against Regional Opponents 8-0
5. Monmouth Overall 8-0 Against Regional Opponents 8-0
6. St. Thomas Overall 6-1 Against Regional Opponents 6-1
7. Occidental Overall 5-1 Against Regional Opponents 5-1
8. Coe Overall 6-1 Against Regional Opponents 6-1
9. Redlands Overall 5-1 Against Regional Opponents 5-1
10. UW-Stevens Point Overall 5-2 Against Regional Opponents 4-1
So let’s look at this in further detail:
It can be said that there are two “bands” in this list where the teams are so close the NCAA could interchange the schools and be completely defensible: an undefeated band and the one-loss band. The undefeated band consists of SJU, Linfield and Central; the one loss band consists of UST, Oxy and Coe. The other undefeated teams or one loss teams seem to be fairly fixed in their positioning.
UW-Whitewater is a no brainer in the first spot. The NCAA tends to reward historical success, and you don’t dethrone the defending champions from a #1 spot until someone beats them.
SJU seems like to be the second team in the West. While the Johnnies have had several close calls, they did play a tough nonconference slate and found success in taking down two WIAC teams. This gives the Jays the narrow edge over Linfield, who has also survived several close calls but is hampered by fewer regional wins in comparison to SJU. And the NWC is significantly hurt by Willamette’s loss to Concordia-Moorhead.
Central would likely be slated next, as they have been impressive thus far this year; Like SJU they have survived a WIAC standout team, but their other nonconference game was a mediocre Lakeland team. I give SJU the nod over Central if only because the MIAC is traditionally given quite a bit of deference by the NCAA. Notwithstanding the Dutch’s better Strength of Schedule ranking, the NCAA seems to disregard the primary criteria at times as they see fit (Linfield has been atop these rankings in the past despite having fewer regional wins than other undefeateds. Why? It’s the ‘Cats! That’s why.). Given some red blinders and a feel for the NCAA’s Johnnie-love, I think the Jays would best Central in these rankings.
Given their undefeated record, Monmouth would come next; but the MWC is not given much historical credibility, so Monmouth would likely get the last slot of the undefeateds in the West.
Next come the one-loss teams, as none of them seem to be strong enough to jump ahead of any of the undefeated teams based on the criteria alone. I place UST first among these teams, if only because of their score differentials in the games they have played this year. Their number of wins puts them ahead of Oxy and Redlands, and since UST’s only loss was to SJU in OT, they should get a nod over Coe. But the difference between UST and Oxy is slim, and Oxy will likely jump the Tommies with a win over Cal Lutheran this week. The Tommies’ weak nonconference schedule may hurt them, however; Coe’s strength of schedule is already higher than the Tommies, so the only thing keeping the Toms over Coe is their record against Gustavus, who both played. The Tommies will need to handle Bethel to definitively keep that comparison in their favor.
Cal Lu and Oxy play each other this week; winner stays (or moves in) and has the inside road to the SCIAC pool A bid; loser is likely outside looking in. Coe gets the nod over Redlands, in part because the NCAA may want some deniability to prevent needing three west-coast teams in the playoffs, and in part because of the strength of schedule of the two.
The last team here is UW-Stevens Point, who, though has two losses, would likely be on par with Cal Lutheran since one of UWSP’s losses was to NAIA Azusa Pacific, and the other was in a nailbiter to Central. Cal Lu may have lost only to Willamette, but the NCAA has not seemed to favor putting three teams from one conference in a Regional Ranking—especially after last year, when it did have three SCIAC teams ranked and none of them survived into the second round of the NCAA playoffs. And Willamette’s loss to Concordia-Moorhead does not do Cal Lu any favors—that loss hurts both the NWC and the SCIAC. The NCAA has had plenty of respect historically for WIAC teams, so UWSP should get the nod here—but it may be short-lived as the Pointers take on UWW this week.
What is almost as interesting as the rankings themselves are those who are left out. St. Norbert’s is a one-loss team; but the MWC is not given much respect and besides, the Green Knights lost convincingly to Monmouth. Bethel is a two loss team, but both losses were to likely playoff teams—and both of those came down to the wire (with SJU needing to kick a school record long field goal to win their game). But two losses are two losses—and while the MIAC appears strong this year, Bethel needs to take down UST to show it belongs on this list. And as mentioned, Cal Lutheran does not make this ranking, mainly because it has not yet played Oxy or Redlands. But a win against Oxy will vault the Kingsmen into the rankings. As mentioned several times, Willamette is also outside this list because of their loss to Concordia-Moorhead. And I won’t waste words on discussing a two-loss UMAC team lack of appearance in the regional rankings.
So there it is. We’ll know more about the NCAA’s thought process this week!
