To predict the Johnnies’ chances for the playoffs, this week’s installment is the easiest I have had to date:
Just win, baby.
For the past four weeks, I have noted that the Johnnies must win out if they want to have a chance to hit the post-season. Well, it comes down to the last week, and I can affirmatively say that their chances of making the post season are 100% if the Jays win.
I can also say that the chances of making the post season are close to zero if they lose. So while beating the upstart Carleton squad on their home turf may seem like a tough deal, especially since Ramler’s boys have come to play against SJU the past few years—almost as if Ramler knows what play the Johnnies will run before we run it—it’s what is going to have to happen.
So in essence, this is week 1 of the playoffs!
Taking the next step, supposing the Johnnies do make the post-season, where do they go from here?
Who can punch their tickets?
So let’s examine who’s guaranteed a spot in the NCAA playoffs first.
- Williamette (NWC)
- Occidental (SCIAC)
- Monmouth (MWC)
- Wartburg (IIAC)
Even with a loss this week, these four are guaranteed to make the 32-team NCAA playoff field. We also know that the MIAC and the WIAC will be represented—the former with the Johnnie/Carleton winner, and the latter with either UW-Stevens Point or UW-Whitewater. The WIAC situation is interesting, as UWSP plays perennial contender UW-LaCrosse, while UW-Whitewater takes on perennial pretender UW-Platteville. A loss by either could drop them out of playoff contention—and a win by both could ensure they are both in. UWSP owns the tiebreaker here, so they can sleep easy if they win on Saturday, and UW-Whitewater would have to sweat out Sunday’s selection show if both UWSP and UWW win on Saturday.
So we know 6 teams will be represented, but there are eight teams in each region. So how will the West be filled out?
As described a few weeks ago, there is always a chance that the NCAA could shift a team over from the North region—Mount Union’s “home turf”. A few weeks ago, there was some thought that North Central could be shifted into the West because of the strength of the teams in the South and the East. However, given the turmoil out East recently, it is looking more likely that Mount Union would be shifted East again giving North Central the top seed in the North Region, leaving the West, essentially untouched. There is the chance that a lower seed could be moved into the region—but we’ll discuss that later.
So who is on the doorstep?
The next analysis is the possibility of a Pool B seed going to Northwestern (MN). There are three Pool B bids awarded nationally. Given its 8-1 record, on paper the Eagles look pretty good. However, their strength of schedule numbers bring the UMAC champs (who are not granted an automatic bid) back to Earth—as the UMAC’s overall record places Northwestern at the back of the pack for the Pool B bids. Currently, the other Pool B teams under consideration are Case Western Reserve (9-0), Huntingdon (8-1), LaGrange (8-1), and Wesley (7-1). However, Huntingdon plays LaGrange, so one of those teams will end up 9-1 at worst, and the other will be out of contention; and Wesley plays Galludet, who is 2-7 on the year. So the Eagles, who need to beat UST to even remain in consideration for the Pool B slot, have to hope that Wesley loses, and pray that Case Western’s loss knocks them behind the Eagles.
Supposing the Eagles win and do not earn a Pool B slot, they are then thrown into the Pool C group, with all the other at-large teams—and six bids are awarded among all teams in Division III. While in theory all teams in NCAA Division III are eligible to be selected, in practice the bids will likely be given to several one-loss teams, and perhaps a two-loss team. In the West there are two Pool C squads under practical consideration, not including Northwestern (MN): UW-Whitewater and Redlands.
As described above, UW-Whitewater could still win the WIAC; and a loss by UW-Stevens Point combined with a Warhawk win could mean the WIAC has only one entrant this year. Redlands cannot win the SCIAC, but a win over Cal Lutheran would go a long way in showing the Bulldogs belong in the playoffs. Again, a loss by Redlands would be fatal to their post-season prospects.
In looking at the West Region rankings to date, however, UW-Whitewater and Redlands are both above the Eagles, meaning that, assuming the West would be awarded two Pool C bids, Northwestern has to hope either UWW and UR lose this weekend to even be sniffing love from the NCAA for a Pool C slot.
Putting it together
So, let’s assume the favorites win this weekend, and by early estimations, this is what appears to occur:
- Willamette
- Occidental
- Monmouth
- UW-Stevens Point
- UW-Whitewater
- Redlands
- MIAC winner
- Wartburg
Thus, the pairings, if done directly on the seeding, should be Wartburg at Willamette, SJU/Carleton at Occidental, Redlands at Monmouth, and Whitewater at Stevens Point. However, this has certain problems—a WIAC first round matchup, and three flights in the first round, and probable to have at least one more in the second round with a fifth one in the third round.
Now, the NCAA doesn’t like flights, but that doesn’t mean they won’t give them when warranted—in other words, take a number one seed and prevent them from playing at home. So, if SJU wins, given that SJU is currently ranked over the IIAC representative, it is likely that Wartburg will be headed to Willamette in the first round. However, if Carleton is the MIAC representative, we will have to see if Wartburg is ranked higher than Carleton in this week’s regional ranking—if so, Carleton could be headed West for their first-round game.
Let’s think outside the box
Now, it would be easy for the NCAA to switch the number 6 and number 7 team in the West without killing bracket integrity—and in this case, doing so would save the NCAA two potential flights in the first round. The downside of this would be a SCIAC rematch in the first round of the playoffs, which isn’t exactly desired—but this isn’t unprecedented. It has been a common occurrence in the South Region…and in the West. So it is extremely plausible that Redlands would head to Occidental in the first round, however much the fans in South California would detest this arrangement.
Now, the NCAA could either choose to maintain bracket integrity from here on out—and send the MIAC winner to Monmouth and send UWW to UWSP—or they could switch the two up to avoid the second intra-conference game in the region. I think the latter is more likely, as the NCAA would likely want to avoid the criticisms of having two “rematches” in the first round. So my early prognostications are as follows:
8. Wartburg at 1. Willamette
7. SJU/Carleton at 4. UW-Stevens Point
6. Redlands at 2. Occidental
5. UW-Whitewater at 3. Monmouth
What this means is that, at the most, there could be four flights in the region. As opposed to the “true” seedings above, where the NCAA could have up to six flights in the region, if the cards fall that way. So the NCAA certainly has an incentive to seeing the brackets set up this way, even if “correct” fairness is thrown out the window—the above described SCIAC matchup, also Monmouth having to host the fifth seed in the region overall. However, historically, these matchups are at least reasonable—given the lack of success of the MWC in the modern era playoffs, hosting any game—much less a WIAC team—is a welcome arrangement. And the number one seed Willamette is protected, playing the number eight seed in the bracket. So the bracket looks pretty good, and would work out much to the NCAA’s liking, even if fans protest. So I am going with this one.
And now, for the standard disclaimer: as described above much could happen in this last week. A loss by Stevens Point could send them out of the playoffs and bring Northwestern into the mix. Or a loss by Redlands could mean SJU or Carleton could be headed to Southern California. Or, a loss by one of the teams could mean the NCAA would shift a team from another region into the West.
So hang on, Johnnie fans—it’s playoff football, and anything can happen!
