Strong and Stout, John-nie De-Fense!
And the craziness continues in the MIAC for another weekend.
You have to go back to 1990 to find the last time the MIAC champion had two conference losses. That year, Concordia and St. Thomas shared the conference crown with 6-2 records—and St. Thomas hasn’t been there since.
It’s unlikely the Tommies will see a conference title this year, but the current four-way tie certainly makes things interesting the rest of the way. Let’s look at where we are:
The MIAC
- Carleton (4-2): at CON, SJU
Concordia (4-2): CAR, at GAC
Saint John’s (4-2): AUG, CAR
Gustavus (4-2): at STO, CON - St. Thomas (4-3): BET, (at Northwestern)
- Bethel (3-3): at UST, at AUG
Augsburg (3-3): at SJU, BET - St. Olaf (2-4): GAC, at HAM
- Hamline (0-7): STO
Suddenly the pictures begin looking a bit better for the Johnnies. Remember that, while the MIAC allows shared conference titles, the way it breaks ties for purposes of awarding the automatic bid in the playoffs is head-to-head first, and if that doesn’t do it, then the “Rose Bowl rule” throws out the team that most recently won an autobid and the tie is broken by head-to-head again. Since SJU has won the autobid more recently than Carleton, Gustavus and Concordia, it would be thrown out in any multiple-team tie for first place. If the Johnnies win out, however, it would have winning records over Carleton and Gustavus, but have lost against Concordia. So SJU wouldn’t mind tying with Gustavus for the conference crown, but cannot tie with Concordia.
If SJU wins out, either one of four things could happen:
- Gustavus wins out, causing losses to Carleton and Concordia so the Gusties and the Johnnies tie for the MIAC crown—meaning the Johnnies take the automatic bid by virtue of the Jays’ homecoming victory;
- Gustavus loses to St. Olaf but beats Concordia, meaning the Johnnies take the MIAC title outright;
- Concordia wins out—meaning the Cobbers and the Johnnies tieso Concordia takes the automatic bid; or
- Concordia loses to Carleton but beats Gustavus, meaning the Jays stand alone for the conference crown.
Thus, if the Johnnies win out, in three out of four scenarios the Johnnies will be seeing the playoffs!
However, there is still a possibility that there could be either a five way or even a six-way tie for the MIAC crown, with all tied teams holding 5-3 records. But in any such scenario, the Johnnies would be out—in a six-way tie, UST could hit the playoffs; in a five-way tie, Carleton would see the post season. So really, the Johnnies need to win out if they want to continue playing come playoff-time.
What does that mean? Johnnie fans need the Jays to win out and hope that Concordia loses at least once—a plausible situation, given that the Cobbers have to win in St. Peter to control their destiny.
But what happens if the Johnnies do win out—and so does Concordia? As explained above, the Cobbers would take the automatic bid, but do the Johnnies still have a chance at the Pool C at-large bid? Maybe.
Exploring the West region.
Last week we recapped the West Region from the outside. Since that time, the NCAA released its regional rankings. The regional rankings are put out by the NCAA as a snapshot as to how the NCAA ranks teams within regions. Keep in mind that the NCAA does not have to keep teams in this region for playoffs—last year, UW-Whitewater was moved to the North region, for example, and replaced by a traditional North region team; or if a region has a number of strong teams, the NCAA could award nine births in a region and shift one of those teams to a different region. There is some speculation that, given the strength of the North region, the CCIW Champion (likely to be North Central) could be moved to the West Region and thus avoid Mount Union.
SJU traveled west to Linfield College in 2002.
The regional rankings from last week, with their updated records through this past weekend, are as follows:
- Willamette 7-0 8-0 NWC
- Occidental 7-0 7-0SCIAC
- Monmouth 9-0 9-0 MWC
- UW-Stevens Point 4-1 7-1 WIAC
- UW-Whitewater 6-1 7-1 WIAC
- Cal Lutheran 5-2 5-2 SCIAC
- Redlands 6-1 6-1 SCIAC
- Northwestern (Minn.) 6-1 8-1 UMAC
- Concordia-Moorhead 4-3 5-3
- St. John’s 5-2 6-2
To start, we need to pull out the Pool A candidates. The NWC, SCIAC, MWC, WIAC, MIAC and IIAC will all be represented—meaning there will be six teams automatically in the playoffs. Now, note that the IIAC leader, Wartburg, is not represented on this list. That means this list gets crowded in a hurry—and that does not help SJU’s case at all.
Last week I discussed the mess in the SCIAC—Occidental beating Cal Lutheran helps the Johnnies as it will knock the Kingsmen down—but how far will they fall? Will they by pushed off this list this week? The Kingsmen could do the Johnnies a huge favor if they can take out Redlands yet this season. That would leave CLU, Redlands and SJU all with two losses on the season—and depending on whether the NCAA ranks Cal Lutheran this week in the Regional Rankings, it could push SJU into striking distance.
I also mentioned Northwestern last week. Northwestern’s thrashing of Crown makes the Eagles a candidate for one of the three available Pool B bids (as the UMAC does not have enough members for a Pool A autobid)—but they need to beat St. Thomas at home first. You can bet Northwestern will come out firing for that one—but don’t be fooled by this UMAC squad—the Eagles did take out UW-River Falls this year on the road, so a victory over the Tommies could happen.
The other variable in the West region is the WIAC situation—but foretelling who will come out of Wisconsin is as difficult to predict as Minnesota weather in May. Currently, UW-Stevens Point is in the drivers’ seat, but UW-Whitewater will make a strong Pool C candidate—and perhaps a safe Pool C slot if both UWSP and UWW win out. If either one of them trip up, all bets are off, as it then depends how far they fall.
One last thing to keep in mind—Pool C slots are determined nationally, not region by region. Thus, there are six Pool C bids nationally, and any team seeking one has to be weighed up against all the other candidates from the North, South and East regions. Currently, there are at least eight one-loss teams nationally that could be in the hunt for an at large bid—if those teams win out, the NCAA would be hard-pressed to award a playoff trip to a two-loss SJU team over a one-loss team elsewhere.
What does all that mean?
It means that SJU could rise as high as sixth in the region and still not be selected for the postseason. In fact, such a situation (being left at home while awaiting a Pool C bid) is fairly likely, no matter how high the Johnnies go in the regional rankings.
So, in summary, if the Johnnies want to be assured of making the playoffs, they need to win out and hope someone knocks off Concordia. If the Cobbers survive their gauntlet, the Johnnies will need a lot of help, both regionally and nationally—especially since the Johnnies are in no position to host a playoff game, the penny-pinching NCAA has no real incentive to ensure there is a spot for SJU.
Could it happen? You’d better believe it—it’ll just be another Manic MIAC Moment!
