With three weeks left in the season, the MIAC race is shaping up and the NCAA playoff picture is starting to come into focus. The water is extremely murky in each situation, but let’s examine both, and see where the Johnnies play out.
The MIAC
- Concordia (4-1): STO, CAR, at GAC
- Saint John’s (4-2): AUG, CAR
St. Thomas (4-2): at AUG, BET, (at Northwestern) - Carleton (3-2): HAM, at CON, SJU
Bethel (3-2): GAC, at UST, at AUG
Gustavus (3-2): at BET, at STO, CON - Augsburg (2-3): UST, at SJU, BET
- St. Olaf (1-4): at CON, GAC, at HAM
- Hamline (0-6): at CAR, STO
There are six teams within one game of the MIAC lead right now, and seven teams that still have a chance at winning at least a share of the MIAC title. And there are plenty of opportunities for the odd to occur, as league-leader Concordia has yet to play two teams currently knocking at the door for their share of the MIAC crown.
For the Johnnies to take the MIAC outright (reasonably), they really do need to win out. As discussed a few weeks ago, the Johnnies lose the tiebreaker to both Bethel and Concordia, so any tie with either of those teams means the Johnnies would not take the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Thus, SJU needs the Cobbers and the Royals to stumble a bit.
Clearly, the Cobbers are in the drivers’ seat and control their own destiny. If they win out, they take the MIAC crown and will be headed to the NCAA playoffs on the MIAC’s behalf. Their one loss to UST could make for an interesting situation if UST, SJU and Concordia tie with two losses in conference play—in which case UST would take the autobid!
So what else helps the Johnnies? In one word—Gustavus. The Gusties, should they win out, would knock Bethel out of the race and hand Concordia another loss, creating a three-way tie with Concordia and SJU. But again, because of such tie, and because Concordia lost to Gustavus, the Gusties would be headed to the playoffs!
Because we assume SJU wins out, Carleton’s last-second loss (again!) this week effectively drops them out of the race since, by assumption, the Knights would pick up their third loss of the year when they face the Johnnies later this year. However, if we drop that assumption and assume the Knights win out, they can still claim a share of the MIAC crown and head to the playoffs by beating the Cobbers. But that game is in Moorhead…so it will be an uphill battle for Ramler’s squad.
Bethel’s loss to Wheaton earlier this year likely means that, for them to have a chance at a return journey to the National Semifinals, they need to win the MIAC autobid. But they need help, just like the Johnnies—and there, the Royals cannot be in a tie with the Cobbers or the Knights.
Augsburg’s run this year has not ended prematurely, as they aren’t out of the race yet—but they need A LOT of help—and our assumption that the Johnnies win out kills the Auggies’ hopes. However, assuming the MIAC continues its wild cardiac finishes—don’t count the boys from Riverside Ave. out quite yet.
So, in summary, Jays’ fans should be cheering for the Gusties the rest of the way, as well as hoping the Oles or the Knights can knock off the Cobbers yet this year. But remember—the Johnnies need to win too…as it doesn’t mean much if the Johnnies don’t win out. But at least we don’t have to be cheering for the Tommies any more!
The Rest of the West
Now, looking off into the distance, an early account of the NCAA race is appropriate. I should note that much of the picture will start to clear up depending upon what happens when the NCAAreleases its first regional rankings this week so we know exactly where the conferences rank against one another. But let’s look at the West Region conference by conference to see what could result.
First off, the West region traditionally has been awarded Pool A bids, also considered automatic bids, to the champions of the IIAC, MIAC, MWC, SCIAC and WIAC conferences. Traditionally, the NWC receives one of the three pool B bids (which is likely after being shut out last year), and the West has been fortunate to receive two of the six available Pool C at large bids to round out the eight West playoff teams.
However, this can vary from year to year—last year, UW-Whitewater was shifted into the North region and the NCAA swapped a (now defunct) IBC team into the West. With the craziness that has been the season this year, it isn’t clear that the West will get all eight bids—it is possible that only one pool C bid would be granted to the West with a, say, CCIW team being shifted into the West. There is some support for this to occur given Wheaton’s win over MIAC contender Bethel in week 2.
So let’s look at the conferences at this early date:
- IIAC. Wartburg is sitting pretty and headed toward the IIAC crown—but has two blemishes on the year, with one being their loss to Augsburg in overtime. But given that the Knights have already survived their nemesis in Central, things look good for Wartburg.
- MWC. Monmouth is undefeated with no insurmountable obstacles remaining between them and the MWC title. However, the MWC’s weak postseason record will likely prevent them from claiming too high of a seed in the playoffs. However, if the Scots finish things out, there may be a home game in Monmouth Illinois this year.
- NWC. Williamette is the front runner and undefeated, with games left with Menlo and Puget Sound, games the Bearcats should be able to handle pretty easily. WU’s wins over Cal Lutheran and Concordia-Moorhead should put the Bearcats in good position to claim the number one seed in the region if the NCAA awards the West eight seeds from their teams. Linfield has an outside shot at a Pool C at large bid, but the ‘Cats loss to Hardin-Simmons plus their lack of D-3 games will likely work against them.
- SCIAC. Here’s where things get a bit crazy. Occidental is in the driver’s seat here, but the Tigers play at Cal-Lutheran this week. The Kingsmen are undefeated in conference, but still have to play Redlands later this year. A win by CLU against Oxy but a loss to the Bulldogs could lead to a three-way tie in the SCIAC. Given that SCIAC uses the “Rose Bowl Rule”, CLU would take the SCIAC crown and head to the playoffs, but that means one-loss Oxy and Redlands would be praying for Pool C bids.
- WIAC. Situation normal to the East—all screwed up. Whitewater’s loss to Stevens Point makes that race wide open, four other teams still in the hunt. The key team of interest there is River Falls, as the Falcons handed Stevens Point their only loss on the season, and, should the Pointers win out, could help SJU’s prayers toward a Pool C bid if the winds blow in the right direction.
- One more that has to be considered this season. The UMAC. The UMAC isn’t awarded an automatic bid, but 7-1 Northwestern is raising its hopes for a potential Pool B or Pool C bid to fall into its lap. The Eagles have two big games left—the UMAC championship game against Crown, then a November 15 tilt hosting the Tommies. If Northwestern pulls out wins over those two, there is a decent chance that the Eagles will make the playoffs this year. But a loss to either would drop the boys from Roseville out of contention.
What does this mean for the Johnnies? Well, they are sitting pretty well against other two loss teams in the region—except that there are a number of one-loss teams still available. So who do the Jays need to cheer for? UW-River Falls winning out would help the Johnnies immensely, as will the SCIAC situation clearing itself up without more than one bid awarded way out west. Finally, the WIAC champ having two losses would make the Johnnies look pretty good for a potential Pool C chance if they tie with Concordia for the MIAC title. However, a three way MIAC title tie, with Concordia and any other team, would likely knock the Jays out as well, since the Cobbers win over the Johnnies would trump the Jays’ hope for a Pool C shot, as it is unlikely that the NCAA would give two two-loss teams from the same conference Pool C bids.
So there you go. Clear as Northfield mud!
