Will November 1st be the last appearance at Clemens Stadium for the Johnnies in 2008?
Well, another week with a win means the MIAC title is still within reach for the Johnnies, albeit a longshot. Let’s take a look where we are now:
- Carleton (3-1): at UST, HAM, at CON, SJU
Concordia (3-1): at HAM, STO, CAR, at GAC - Saint John’s (3-2): at STO, AUG, CAR
Bethel (3-2): GAC, at UST, at AUG
St. Thomas (3-2): CAR, at AUG, BET - Augsburg (2-2): at GAC, UST, at SJU, BET
Gustavus (2-2): AUG, at BET, at STO, CON - St. Olaf (1-3): SJU, at CON, GAC, at HAM
- Hamline (0-5): CON, at CAR, STO
A few notes first:
- Hamline has been eliminated. Even if they win out there will still be at least one team that finishes, at worst, with four losses. So the Pipers will need to set their focus on ’09 and try to play spoiler with the remainder of this year.
- But there remain 8 teams that could, in theory, still try for a share of the MIAC crown. Talk about a logjam!
So the big question is: Can the Johnnies really still win a trip to the NCAA playoffs?
The scenario I picked last week is still in force, fortunately. Again, obviously, SJU needs to win out. But this past week was very good to the Jays. Let’s break down the situation team by team:
Augsburg is a half-game back from the Johnnies, but their two current losses, combined with an assumed loss to SJU, puts them out of contention for the MIAC title.
Bethel is even with the Johnnies but holds the head-to-head tiebreak with the Jays. However, BU has to play all the other two-loss teams yet this year, meaning three of the current five, at best, won’t survive with only two losses. The Johnnies really need Bethel to drop one of those three since the Royals hold that pesky win over SJU that would give Bethel the crown if the Johnnies and Royals were to tie for the MIAC title (again!).
Carleton’s overtime loss to Gustavus gave the Knights their first loss of the year, and SJU needs Carleton to lose two more—one of those will come from the Johnnies—meaning the Tommies, Hamline or Concordia could all knock the Knights off their pedestal.
Concordia is still probably in the best shape of the whole conference. The Johnnies need the Cobbers to lose twice in their last four in order for the Jays to take the autobid outright, and there is some hope that could happen—Concordia gets Carleton on the second to the last weekend of the year—but that game is at the Jake; and the Cobbers’ other three games are against teams that are a combined 3-10 in the conference. So while it isn’t proper to cheer for a team to lose, Johnnie fans won’t be shedding a tear if the Cobbers don’t finish in the win column a few times yet this year.
Gustavus is still in the hunt, but like the Johnnies, need to win out. Though, doing so could help the Johnnies since SJU holds the tiebreak with the Golden Gusties. But realistically, winning at Bethel has been a struggle for GAC, and Gustavus still needs to play Concordia this year. Though, winning out wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Johnnies since it would knock the two teams that hold tiebreakers over the Johnnies down a peg.
St. Olaf is a real longshot, as described above. They would have to win out and have a LOT of help in quite absurd ways. Though, with the unpredictability in the MIAC this year, it is not outside the realm of possibility. But I am not going to waste much time discovering the crazy ways that the Oles could find their way into the NCAA playoffs since the deck is clearly stacked against them at this point.
St. Thomas will probably regret “the fumble” since it has put the Toms to the brink of elimination—and the Toms still need to take on Carleton, Bethel and Augsburg. Like Gustavus, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Tommies to win out—it could put the Jays in a three way tie with GAC and UST, and since we hold the tiebreakers over both (we went 2-0 versus those two teams, UST 1-1, and GAC 0-2), we would take the crown.
So what does this all mean? Not much has changed since last week’s prediction, though it has cleared up in that Johnnies need to cheer for the following:
- Gustavus to win out
- Carleton to beat Concordia
- However distasteful it may seem, the Tommies to win out.
If that happens, the Johnnies would be in a three-way tie with GAC and UST for the title, and by virtue of the head to head, we would be hitting the NCAA playoffs.
Again, the Johnnies would not bode well in a three (or more!)-way tie involving either Bethel and/or Concordia—however, they would be OK with tying with any other teams, as it would be quite likely that SJU would win the head-to-head.
So again, more next week, but there is still hope (however much a longshot) for the Jays!
