JohnnieFootball

The Johnnies could use a game-breaker like Blake Elliott right now.

While the Johnnies have struggled at times this year, it is important to remember that SJU has lost two games by two plays it failed to make…and as such, perhaps the hope of its 30^th MIAC title isn’t over for the Jays. So let’s take a look at the MIAC race:

The current MIAC standings, with their remaining games up next:

1. Carleton (3-0): GAC, at UST, HAM, at CON, SJU
2. St. Thomas (3-1): SJU, CAR, at AUG, BET
3. Augsburg (2-1): CON, at GAC, UST, at SJU, BET
   Concordia (2-1): at AUG, at HAM, STO, CAR, at GAC
5. Saint John’s (2-2): at UST, at STO, AUG, CAR
   Bethel (2-2): at HAM, GAC, at UST, at AUG
7. Gustavus (1-2): at CAR, AUG, at BET, at STO, CON
8. St. Olaf (1-3): SJU, at CON, GAC, at HAM
9. Hamline (0-4): BET, CON, at CAR, STO

So let’s project how SJU can win the title outright. First off, SJU needs to help themselves and win out. That would mean UST, Augsburg, and Carleton (the teams in front of SJU) would each have a loss added to them. But SJU needs UST, Augsburg, and Concordia to lose twice; Gustavus and Bethel to lose once more, and Carleton to lose three times. Assuming the Jays win out, SJU would give UST and Augsburg one loss each. But SJU needs UST and Augsburg to lose one more on their own (one of them will get that since they play each other), and UST has to play Carleton and Bethel yet, and Augsburg as to play Concordia and Bethel, there are plenty of opportunities for that to occur.

Carleton needs to lose three times—again, assuming the above, SJU will give one more of those losses, but the Knights would need to lose two of their last four games for that to occur—which could happen since they have to play both at UST and at Concordia. But that may be asking too much.

Concordia needs to lose twice—and SJU cannot control the Cobbers’ destiny. The Cobbers have to go to Augsburg, but do have Carleton at home—but the remaining schedule looks favorable for the C’s.

The Johnnies need Bethel and Gustavus to lose once each. One of them will get that loss when they play each other on November 1, but the other will have to come from someone else—and Gustavus has yet to play Carleton, Augsburg or Concordia.

So what is such a scenario?

1. Carleton loses to Gustavus and UST and SJU, but beats Hamline and Concordia;
2. St. Thomas loses to SJU, Augsburg and Bethel but beats Carleton;
3. Augsburg loses to Concordia and SJU but beats Gustavus, UST and Bethel;
4. Concordia loses to Carleton and Gustavus but beats Augsburg, Hamline and St. Olaf;
5. Bethel loses to Augsburg but beats Hamline, Gustavus and St. Thomas;
6. Gustavus loses to Augsburg and Bethel but beats Carleton, St. Olaf and Concordia.

St. Olaf and Hamline are realistically out of reach of the MIAC title, though, combined with an SJU loss or two, there may be a scenario that they could contend too…however unlikely.

So SJU could still win a title outright, but as you see from the example above (which, please note, is not the ONLY way, but is A way), the Johnnies need A LOT of help.

Now, in the case that SJU were to tie with other teams for the title, things get more interesting. Under the MIAC Football Rules, the Conference title for football is determined as follows:

6.1 HOW DECIDED: The championship in football will be determined on a point basis — one (1) point per win, based on the approved round-robin schedule.

6.1.1 POLICY FOR TIE BREAKER: Ties will be broken in order to select the automatic qualifier to the NCAA playoffs as follows: (added 5/99)

1. Head to Head competition.
2. If 3 or more teams are tied, the team that has most recently been to the playoffs will be eliminated. Then it goes back to head to head competition with the remaining teams.
3. Coin flip, if head to head competition and recent playoff appearances do not solve the tie.

This means that SJU would need to tie with teams it has defeated in order to claim the autobid—for example, if SJU wins out, it could tie with UST, Augsburg and/or Carleton (assuming Carleton loses another game along the way) and SJU would claim the automatic bid based upon the fact that it would have beaten each of those teams head-to-head.

However, if SJU ties with Concordia for the MIAC title, it would be in trouble, since it loses the head-to-head with Concordia; and, if tied with Concordia and any other team, since SJU was last in the playoffs in 2007, it would lose a multiple team tiebreaker to every other team in the MIAC.

The very interesting case would develop if SJU were to tie in a multiple team arrangement with Bethel. Since both Bethel and SJU were last in the playoffs in 2007, which one would be eliminated first? Bethel, who won the automatic bid in 2007? Or SJU who took the at-large bid? The MIAC rules aren’t clear on that point—and does SJU really want to rely on a coin flip to determine its NCAA hopes?

So SJU would need to hope for at least two more losses to Concordia and one more to Bethel, and a little help in teams playing Carleton for this to be an issue. The moral of the story? Go Johnnies, and hit the Abbey to pray for a lot of assistance!