Desperate times call for desperate measures.  The Johnnies are on the verge of their worst season since 1997 (6-4, coincidently the last year SJU lost to Augsburg) and could challenge the abysmal 1986 season (4-4-1) if they don’t find a way to beat St. Thomas and/or Bethel this week.  If not, I expect some really small crowds (by SJU standards, actual people in seats of 3000) in late October/early November in Collegeville.

The rumors out of Collegeville this week are that several personnel changes are on the way including a few offensive players moving to the defensive side of the ball.  The defense has been overmatched all season.  I’m not sure I’d pick the St. Thomas game to make wholesale changes, but clearly the Johnnies are backed into a corner (no pun intended).  The defense as a unit is undersized and slow.  The pass rush has been horrendous which has exposed a secondary that has consistently been 2-3 steps slow to the football.  The few times the Johnnies have gotten to the quarterback has been the result of a blitz and playing man to man coverage in the secondary. 

Along with all the defensive changes, the Johnnies quarterback carousel is expected to continue.  We’re in week 5 of the 2011 season.  This simply can’t happen.  All things being equal, play the kid who is younger (has the most eligibility left).  This continued indecision has certainly led to the up and down start to the season.  Unless you have one exceptional running quarterback and one exceptional throwing quarterback, you’ve got to pick one.

It is time to wake up in Collegeville.  Glenn Caruso and Steve Johnson are whooping the Johnnies in the recruiting game.  If the Johnnies aren’t careful on Saturday, the result could be downright embarrassing. 

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Prediction:

St. Thomas 38 – St. John’s 20

The Johnnies were thoroughly embarrassed a couple weeks ago against Wisconsin-Eau Claire.  Longtime Johnnie football followers said they had never seen such a pathetic home game performance (31-0 at the half).  It was a listless performance against a team picked to finish 7th out of 8 WIAC teams. 

Last weekend was a welcome sign of resilience.  Making the trip to Moorhead and scheming for their offensive sets is never an easy task.  The Johnnies got out to a nice 1st half lead, gave it up in the 4th quarter, and then found a way to win in overtime.  They need to carry that momentum into the rest of the season.  The more game experience that the Johnnie freshmen can get the better.

This week, Augsburg (2-0), brings their pro style, spread offense to St. John’s.  The Johnnies have struggled mightily against the pass this year and the secondary will have to play well.  The Auggies had their freshmen RB run for four TDs last week so the the defensive backfield will need to support the run too.

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Prediction: SJU 34 – Augsburg 21

The Stiftungsfestivities tailgate party will be taking place again this week starting around 9-10am above the scoreboard.  There will be the world famous burgers and some authentic Chicago Polish Sausages brought by a Johnnie alumnus.  Bring a treat to share and introduce yourself.  Everyone is welcome.

The Johnnies rotated QBs, as expected, last week with Connor Bruns showing the best arm, poise in the pocket, ability to move the chains, and put points on the scoreboard.  It will be interesting to see if the coaching staff continues to rotate between Bruns and John Ries or lets Bruns have the reigns.    You can’t play ring around the rosie against a quality opponent like UWEC.

Likewise, while the Johnnies’ depth at RB is absolutely a team strength, Steve Johnson has earned the majority of the carries.  Take a look at this YouTube highlight film from his high school days.  He was a monster in a very competitive Twin Cities metro conference.  No question that Harry Awe should be used as a change of pace back (trick play specialist) and Jakob Reding/Nick Schneider for running between the tackles.

PREDICTION:  St. John’s 20 – UWEC 17

*All photos courtesy of Jeff Sowden.

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Normally I will be issuing a weekly game preview on Wednesday.  However, this week I’ve decided to forgo a Northwestern/SJU.  There isn’t much to say to be honest.  The Eagles return off a 1-8 season with their starting QB, top WR, top 2 RBs, and the majority of their leading playmakers on defense.  The Johnnies will be using the opening game like they always do.  That is they will rotate guys in and out until they get players who make plays & good decisions consistently.  It is a great opportunity to get the freshmen’s feet wet in front of the Collegeville faithful.

Questions to be answered in Non-Conference Play (Northwestern and Wisconsin-Eau Claire):

Who will be the Johnnies starting QB for the foreseeable future?

Options include John Ries of Wayzata (JR), Connor Bruns of Maryland (SO), Ben Krebsbach of Benilde-St. Margarets (SO).  Ries is said to be leading the competition (possibly be default as he’s the only one of the group to have played significant minutes).  I’d imagine if he struggles you’ll see Bruns or Krebsbach until somebody comes out and WINS the job.

How will the defense respond to a subpar season in 2010?

All-American Kyle Schroeder graduated as did LBs Billy Lawrence and John Stanton.  There are some exciting recruits in LB Andrew Rose and DL Joe Zrust, but freshmen rarely see the field their first season in Collegeville (albeit a few standouts on Special Teams).

What kind of depth can be established?

Playing Wisconsin-Eau Claire, Concordia, St. Thomas, and Bethel in a 5 week stretch will determine the success of the season.  These are all physical teams and undoubtedly there will be injuries.  The best Johnnies’ squads have had the ability to blow teams out, thereby, allowing the 2nd, 3rd, 4th stringers to see valuable playing time.  Another key to the Johnnies’ success during John Gagliardi’s tenure has been all the extra games played following the end of the regular season.  Bethel and St. Thomas played into mid-December last season and that will pay dividends for them in 2011.

How can the offensive playcalling be enhanced in 2011?

There will be bumps in the road with a brand new starting QB.  The key will be being dynamic in the playcalling to allow the new signal caller to get comfortable.  Spread the field, use the solid veteran RBs who return (Reding, Awe, Johnson, Schneider), maybe some no-huddle offense, move the pocket with some rollouts/bootlegs, etc.  The Johnnies have struggled the past couple of seasons when the playcalling has become stagnant and predictable.

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The first Stiftungsfestivities of the 2011 season will take place in the Science Lot #2 parking lot (South endzone above the scoreboard) starting around 9am.  Bring a beverage of your choice and an appetizer/dessert/snack to share.  Mike Fahey will be providing his world famous Stiftungsfest burgers.  Everyone is welcome to attend (yes, Northwestern fans, parents, alums, friends, etc.) and the camaraderie/fellowship that has been developed over the years among fans is second to none.

Piper Offense:  The Pipers are led by QB Adam Meyer #3 who has thrown for just over a 50% completion percentage with 9 TDs and 12 INTs this season.  Freshman RB Zach Cornish #37 is the Pipers main threat in the backfield with 504 yards and 6 TDs.  Senior WRs Alex House and Tim Queck have nearly identical statistics with 519 yards receiving and 4 & 3 TDs respectively.  Hamline runs a pro style offense that is capable of big plays but also must have excellent protection from its offensive line or there will be turnovers abound.

Johnnie Offense:  Senior QB Joe Boyle had a terrific day last week against the Oles passing for 329 yards and 3 TDs in the blowout win.  He was named MIAC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance.  The Johnnies have been able to get all 4 RBs involved in the game and have been able to find open receivers when teams decide to blitz to create pressure on the QB.

Piper Defense:  The Pipers have been decimated all season by opposing offenses.  They are simply overmatched and Saturday should be no exception.  WLB Justin Bain #29 leads the team with 10 tackles for loss.  FS J-M Vandenberg #31 and S Brady Lorenzen #5 are the other key contributors to the Piper defense.

Johnnie Defense:  Senior DT Kyle Schroeder #97 has been double & triple teamed all season following his All-American campaign last fall.  Despite the extra attention from offensive lines he has been a stalwart and spent a lot of time in opposing backfields.  The extra attention has allowed his teammates along the defensive line and the linebacking group to get free & make more plays.  It is a classic case of the statistics not telling the whole story.

Piper Special Teams:  John Broback is the Pipers Kicker and Punter.  He is 6 of 7 in FGs and a perfect 22 of 22 in PATs.  Broback’s punt average is 37.4 yards with 7 landing inside the 20 yard line and 2 blocked kicks.  Speedsters Alex House and Tim Queck handle the punt & kick return responsibilities.

Johnnie Special Teams:  Jimmie Mattson was a perfect 6 for 6 on PATs last week at St. Olaf and P Scott Ramey has really been booming his punts in the 2nd half of the season.  This game should not come down to special teams.  A few big punt returns could set up short fields and quick scores for the Johnnies allowing the 3rd, 4th, 5th string players to get some game experience for next season.

By all objective and subjective measures this game should be an overwhelming blowout.  The Johnnies come into the game with the #1 ranking in total offense in the MIAC and #2 ranking in the all important scoring offense behind St. Thomas.  The Pipers have been systematically dismantled all season by some pretty average football teams.  A trip to Collegeville in November is not a recipe for success.

St. John’s 52 – Hamline 10

Ole Offense:  Sophomore QB, Dan Dobson #1, is this week’s MIAC Player of the Week after throwing 5 TD passes last week against Hamline.  He has thrown 19 TD passes and run for 3 this season.  Junior RB, Leon Clark #5, leads the Ole rushing attack with 7 TDs and 933 yards this year.  He is extremely shifty and quick through the hole.  Senior WR, Antonio Jennings #2, has 10 TD receptions and 593 yards on the season.  The Oles have numerous weapons and they will be a stern test for the Johnnie defense.

Johnnie Offense:  The key to a great offense is exhibiting a good balance between pass & run thereby not becoming too predictable for the opposing defense.  Josh Overman and the dynamic 4 pronged Johnnie rushing attack have the ability to do that on a weekly basis.  The Ole defense is absolutely no slouch and they will prove a challenge to move the ball effectively.

Ole Defense:  Sophomore DB, Ben Dobson #7, and Junior LB, Matt Olson #37, are the key cogs in the Ole defense.  They make plays all over the field and have a great nose for the football.  The Oles were steamrolled by St. Thomas earlier in the season but excluding that they’ve been very stingy all season.  If they can create havoc and force some turnovers (which the Johnnies have been prone to all season) the Oles have a great shot on Saturday.

Johnnie Defense:  Senior DL, Kyle Schroeder #97, is the reigning MIAC Defensive Player of the Week following a stellar performance last week at Carleton.  The Oles come at you in waves with lots of outstanding skill position players and speed all over the field.  The key will be making them as one dimensional as possible.

Ole Special Teams:  Sophomore Punter/Kicker, Jason Obarski #3, is 5-8 in FGs and 27-31 in PATs this season.  Freshman, Michael Thai #22, is returning punts with a 10.1 yards per return this season.  Leon Clark and Reggie Woods are returning kicks for the Oles.

Johnnie Special Teams:  Jimmie Mattson and Scott Ramey continue to take the kicking duties.  They will be key in helping to tilt the field for optimal field position on Saturday.  The Oles have lots of offensive weapons and making them go 80+ yards to score will be critical. 

The Oles are young, talented, and hungry.  They will be contending for the MIAC title next season with help from their continued strong pipeline of recruits from Florida & Atlanta.  The Johnnies continue to let opponents hang around while showing a propensity for making turnovers.  This game will be close.

St. John’s 20 – St. Olaf 21

Knight Offense: Vaughn Schmid (#17) starts at QB and is both a threat to run & pass. Jon Lien (#39) is the top Knight RB with 662 yards and 7 TDs on the season. Both Killian Murphy (#7) and C.J. Dale (#14) have been potent weapons for the Knight’s passing game with 3 & 4 TDs respectively. Former Johnnie standout QB, Kurt Ramler, is in his 5th season leading the Carleton program. He is familiar with the SJU schemes and this tends to create some great in-game adjustments.

Johnnie Offense: The Johnnie offense runs the smoothest when they are in the no huddle or hurry up offense. Unfortunately this has been seen mostly at the end of games when SJU is trailing & needs to score points fast. Offensive coordinator, Jim Gagliardi, spent last week in the press box switching places with Mike Trewick. The offense hummed along early and it looked like the Johnnies might roll up 50+ points on the Gusties. If the offense stays aggressive and spreads the field to optimize the mismatchs, there is no reason the Johnnies shouldn’t put up huge numbers this week.

Knight Defense: The Knights are led by senior LB Mark Skoglund, S Neil Kolstad, and S Mike Elder. They’ve allowed over 400 yards of offense per game (and it is NOT a good sign when players in your secondary are near the team lead in tackles). They will be aggressive and bring the blitz to force Joe Boyle to make fast decisions in hopes of forcing some turnovers which Boyle has done this season.

Johnnie Defense: The Johnnies have begun rotating more players into the game on the defensive side of the football, particularly the defensive line. There hasn’t been much pressure from the line all season long and this has been a significant contributor to the 3 SJU losses. The LBs continue to swarm to the football and make running the football difficult for the opposition. A few early turnovers would be just the ticket to a big win.

Knight Special Teams: Eric Murphy handles the Knight placekicking going 3-5 on FGs, and 27-28 on PATs. Bill Moritz is the punter who averages 31.1 yards/kick and has 4 balls inside the 20 yard line. DeAngelo Williams and Tsubasa Matsui are the Carleton kick returners while Jordan Soteros returns punts.

Johnnie Special Teams: Jimmie Mattson continues to handle the placekicking. He missed a PAT last week and appeared to be trying to boom a 50 yard FG. Instead the following PATs were just modest chip shots which is all that is necessary for maximum accuracy. The kicking game has been just a little out of sync all season as the long snapper has a broken thumb that has resulted in several bouncing snaps on punts/FGs/PATs.

The Johnnies haven’t come close to hitting on all cylinders all season long. They’ve been plagued by countless turnovers and some suspect playcalling which has resulted in several close games. There is no reason to believe that Saturday’s game should be close…but I bet it will be. Call it the Ramler Factor!

St. John’s 34 – Carleton 24

Gustie Offense: The Gusties are led by freshman RB Jeffrey Dubose who is averaging 79 yards a game with 4 TDs on the season. Sophomore WR Muresuk Mena has 43 catches for 258 yards and 3 TDs. QB Logan Becker leads the Gusties with 8 TDs, 8 INTs, and has thrown for 169 yards per game. They continue to run a pro-style offense which has been feast or famine for them this season.

Johnnie Offense: The Johnnies offense has to find a way to right the ship and put some big points on the board. One of the keys to the great Johnnie squads of year’s past was the ability to get out to big leads thus allowing the underclassmen valuable playing time against the opposition’s #1 unit.

Gustie Defense: The Gusties are led on by LBs Zach Lundquist and Paul Stommes. CB Dustin Kammerer leads the team with 50 tackles including 4 for loss. They’ve held a very good Wartburg team to 27 pts and an equally solid Bethel squad to 20 pts. Look for them to bring pressure and try to create turnovers to swing the momentum of the game early in the contest.

Johnnie Defense: The defense will have to force the Gusties to throw the ball. The Johnnies always have a strong gameplan versus Gustavus and this week should be no exception. Look for them to focus on stopping the run early in the game forcing GAC into uncomfortable 3rd and long situations.

Gustie Special Teams: Tom Huepenbecker handles the kicking and is 2-6 in FGs and 15-17 in PATs.  The Gusties have had 2 punts blocked on the season.  If the game comes down to special teams that would mean Gustavus is where they want to be.

Johnnie Special Teams: The SJU special teams can tilt the field with excellent field position with some quality kick coverage and nice returns themselves. If this game comes down to the kicking game the advantage is to the Johnnies.

Prediction: The Gusties have played some quality teams this season and played decent. I think they’ll hang around for a half on Saturday. However, if the weather is nice I see lots of built up frustration being exercised onto the Gustavus squad.

St. John’s 42 – Gustavus 7

Royals Offense:  The Royals are led by junior QB Josh Aakre who is a dual threat on the ground and through the air.  Logan Flannery leads the MIAC in rushing yards averaging 143 yards/game with 8 TDs on the season.  The Royals top receiver is sophomore Jay Hilbrands who has 14 receptions for 201 yards and 1 TD on the season.  TE Alex Wright has also been a top target for QB Josh Aakre with 8 catches for 90 yards and 2 TDs through 4 games.

Johnnies Offense:  The Johnnies have settled into a nice groove on the offensive side of the ball.  Clearly the best formations are when they are spreading the field allowing QB Joe Boyle to identify favorable matchups and/or audible into positive plays.  The contrast between the bruising style of Jakob Reding and the quick flash of Harry Awe has been working tremendously.  The offense will need to put up some points so as not to allow this Bethel squad to hang around and steal the game late in the 4th quarter (see previous losses to Bethel).

Royals Defense:  The Royals have the top rated defense in the MIAC this season.  They are led by DE Andrew Johnson, LB Billy Morgan, & UST transfer LB Ross Petterson.  Bethel plays a 3-4 defense that is big, physical, and swarms to the football.  They always have a great scheme versus the Johnnies and this week should be no different.

Johnnies Defense:  The J’s defense better be ready to rock this week as the Royals offense has been even more productive than the Tommies so far this season.  LB Billy Lawrence left the game late in the 4th quarter last week and his status is unknown.  The one thing that is certain is that the Bethel coaches saw the UST/SJU video.  They saw how undisciplined the Johnnie DEs were throughout the game (being sucked inside losing containment and outside leverage allowing Tommies QB Tracy to continually get outside the pocket on the bootlegs).

Royals Special Teams:  Kicker Matt Wetherall is 0 for 2 on FGs and just 16 for 22 on PATs.  Clearly placekicking is not a strength of the 2010 Royals.  Backup RB Kevin Lindh has been returning kicks.  Ben Jameson is averaging 41 yards a punt (after snubbing the Penn State Nittany Lions for Bethel U).  Special Teams have played a big part in the annual SJU/BU games, so any big play either way could determine the outcome late Saturday afternoon.

Johnnies Special Teams:  The Johnnies continue to have problems kicking the ball.  Punter Scott Ramey has had several shanks the last few weeks which have put the defense with short fields and in precarious positions.  Jimmie Mattson continues to do well on his field goal attempts, but is just 21 for 24 in PATs.  Getting the upper hand in the battle for field position could be critical on Saturday.  Kick coverage could also be telling as last week Tommie star Fritz Waldvogel was very close to breaking several returns for touchdowns.

Prediction:  The Royals are 4-0 and riding high following a tight victory over St. Olaf last Saturday in Northfield.  They seem to have figured out a scheme to give the Johnnies all they can handle every year.  Ball control, timely turnovers, and impeccable execution have helped the Royals beat the Johnnies more than any other team over the past decade.  All that being said, the Johnnies are playing for their playoff lives (albeit very small chance) on Saturday in Arden Hills. 

St. John’s 24 – Bethel 20

Tommie Offense: The Toms are going with a 2 man QB rotation of starter Dakota Tracy and backup Greg Morse.  Tracy tends to be the purple’s “running” QB while Morse is the “throwing” QB.  Tracy has gotten more snaps and shown more poise in the pocket (not forcing balls into tight spots prone to interceptions).  RB Ben Wartman has been out the last 2 weeks with injury and RB Colin Tobin has filled in admirably.  The Toms best weapon on offense is WR Fritz Waldvogel.  He is quick, shifty, & makes big plays especially on special teams returning both punts and kicks.  The Tommies are fairly balanced on offense, but have shown they like the trick play.  Both Wartman and Tobin have thrown halfback passes this season (one for a TD, the other for an INT).

Johnnie Offense: This is the game that will define Joe Boyle’s Johnnie career.  If he plays well and leads the Cardinal & Blue to victory this game will serve as a springboard for the rest of the season (including a big game next week at Bethel) & the playoffs.  The Johnnie offense has hummed the last couple of weeks primarily using RB Steve Johnson to carry the load with Jakob Reding offering a bruising style, Harry Awe a much needed change of pace, and Nick Schneider a dual threat out of the backfield.  Dynamic playcalling along with creative offensive formations (shifting, extra TEs, 5 WRs, motion, etc) will be necessary to keep this high powered Tommie defense off balance.

Tommie Defense: The Toms play a 3-4 defensive scheme and are led by LBs Tommy Becker, Willy Baregi, and Tony Danna.  These guys are big and fast with exceptional ability to fly sideline to sideline.  Brady Ervin leads the team with 3 interceptions including 1 brought back for a TD.  The defense returned nearly all starters from last year’s team that advanced to the West Region Final.

Johnnie Defense: The Johnnies have their biggest test of the season trying to contain the multitude of weapons the Tommies can attack with.  The goal is to make them one dimensional and force them into 3rd and long situations.  The Toms have a big experienced offensive line which will be trying to impose their will on the Johnnie D-Line.  Maintaining discipline and not looking in the Tommie backfield will be essential as Tommie Head Coach Glenn Caruso loves the trick play.  A big play (INT or fumble recovery for a TD) and winning the turnover margin could be critical to victory.

Tommie Special Teams: Fritz Waldvogel returns kicks and punts (where he averages an astronomical 21 yards a return).  Tim Albright is the Tommie kicker.  He is 1 for 3 on FGs (missing twice last week against Concordia) and 21 of 23 on PATs.  Garrett Maloney handles the punting for the Toms averaging 41 yards a kick with 4 kicks landing inside the 20 yard line.

Johnnie Special Teams: Andrew Rotschafer has stepped in for the injured Brayde Lipp to return punts while Mike Bonynge and Jimmy Loonan take the kickoffs.  Jimmie Mattson is 4 for 4 on FGs and 19 of 21 on PATs.  Scott Ramey could be an important player in helping the Johnnies win the field position battle.  He is averaging 36 yards a punt and has 2 balls inside the 20 yard line.

Prediction: I really have absolutely no idea what will happen on Saturday and that is the greatest thing about sports.  The unknown.  People can prognosticate, analyze, overanalyze, digest, and venture a guess on what they think will happen all day long.  Ultimately the game is unpredictable which is why the game of football is so great.  A big play, a turnover, a missed extra point, and a bad call from the officials can all swing the outcome of the game.  The Tommies come in highly touted following a great run in the 2009 playoffs and the return of all their key players.  The Johnnies are in a virtual must win situation following the loss at Eau-Claire and will unquestionably play in front of the largest crowd of their careers.  My heart says the Johnnies.  My mind says the Tommies.

St. John’s 27 – St. Thomas 30