JohnnieFootball

40 Responses

1. Mr.Shoes

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:18 am

   Welcome to the JohnnieFootball.com Playoff Selection Show live commentary thread. The show starts in 15 minutes.

2. JohnnieEsq

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:22 am

   I’ll start this morning off by introducing our discussion this morning.

   As we know, the NCAA will pick the 32 team field and announce it on ESPN U at 10:30 am CST this morning. Of that 32 teams, 22 teams are so-called pool A teams, reserved for certain conference champions; 3 are so-called pool B teams, reserved for other conferences (those with fewer than 7 teams), and 7 are reserved for at-large bids. SJU is hoping for an at-large bid.

   The NCAA has a relatively complex methodology for determining the at-large bids. These are awarded through a mix of primary and secondary criteria, but the Committee will determine how much weight to award any specific criteria– that means there is some amount of subjectivity to this process.

   The NCAA has shown historically that it is concerned only about fair access to the playoffs– not fair matchups once in the playoffs. That means it is possible that a 7 seed could take on a 6 seed in the first round– this is especially the case when the NCAA has an opportunity to save a flight– which significantly impacts the West Region.

3. TC

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:27 am

   A positive note on yesterday’s loss to Bethel and it’s implications on the Johnnies playoff potential: This is the fourth time St. John’s has lost to the Royals and the Johnnies’ three previous seasons ended with at least a pair of wins and a berth in the West Region finals.

   In 1999, St. John’s lost to Bethel 24-20 in the regular season but still ended up hosting (and defeating) UW-Stevens Point and Central (IA), before falling to eventual national champion Pacific Lutheran at home.

   Similary, last year’s team suffered its only regular season loss in the season finale to Bethel (28-13) before going on the road to beat Central (IA) and Whitworth before ending their season at eventual Stagg Bowl runner-up UW-Whitewater.

   You might remember that the 2000 Johnnie vintage, which lost at Bethel 43-36 in the regular season and to Mount Union 10-7 in the Stagg Bowl. In between, they were playoff road warriors, winning at UW-Stout, Pacific Lutheran, Central (IA) and Hardin-Simmons.

   While it would have been nice if they Johnnies had beat Bethel and secured a home playoff game or two, the loss certainly doesn’t guarentee an early playoff exit.

4. JohnnieEsq

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:30 am

   The teams we know are in so far from the West region– the so called “Pool A teams”– are as follows:

   1. UW-Whitewater
   2. Central (IA)
   3. St. Norbert’s
   4. Bethel
   5. Redlands

   Whitworth is a potential Pool B entrant. The NWC does not have an automatic bid, and therefore they get pooled in with the rest of the other Pool B conferences, and have to battle it out with those teams. Whitworth has two losses overall, but only one at the D3 level– to Redlands. If they do not get a Pool B bid they will become a Pool C team.

   Pool C possibilities from the West could include:
   1. St. John’s
   2. Whitworth (see above)
   3. St. Olaf
   4. UW-Eau Claire

   The NCAA could also move a team from another region into the West bracket. Don’t be surprised to see Concordia of Wisconsin move over into the West Region.

5. JohnnieEsq

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:33 am

   D3football.com echoed my predicted matchups last night, seeing the following games in the first round:

   Concordia (WI) at UW-Whitewater

   Bethel vs. St. Norbert’s

   St. John’s at Central

   Whitworth at Redlands

   The question then comes: will BU host an undefeated SNC? Will the committee send the Johnnies to Pella, IA, two years in a row?

6. DustySJU

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:35 am

   Good morning everyone! Just back from mass at St. Hubert’s in Chanhassan.

   The priest presiding this morning is a Tommie grad and instructor and he made special note to rub in yesterday’s loss.

   Lots of talk afterwards also with other Johnnie fans and all those others who are aware of my own colors.

   Reusse and Souhan have just made lengthy comments about the SJU/BU game on their Sunday morning sports show that begins on 1500AM at 10:00am. All those comments came after their weekly thrashing of the rodents!

7. TC

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:36 am

   Yesterday’s loss leaves the Johnnies as proverbial beggers rather than choosers, but I think they could do worse then have a First Round trip to Pella to play the Central Dutch. The Johnnies are 3-0 against the Dutch in the playoffs since 1999 (wins in ‘99, ‘00 and ‘06), and while Central is undefeated they’ve been walking a tightrope with close wins all season. Plus, the trip to Pella is a relatively easy one that experienced fans should be familiar with.

   Obviously any bracket that seperates the Johnnies and UW-Whitewater until the West Regional finals will be considered a good draw for St. John’s. Whitewater has ended the Johnnies’ season the last two years and look strong again this year, likely having the #1 seed in the West locked up.

8. JohnnieEsq

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:38 am

   UW-Whitewater will likely be considered the #1 seed and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

   The Redlands/Whitworth winner will likely be considered to be flying into their second round game.

9. TC

   November 11th, 2007 at 11:39 am

   For Bethel, 0 for 3 historically in the playoffs, a first round matchup with St. Norbert would be ideal. Even though they are undefeated, St. Norbert comes from a weak conference–the Midwest Conference has only 1 win in 9 playoff tries. It would be the inevitable “something has to give”, and I really like the Royals chances.

10. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:41 am

    Hello again! I’m currently on a teleconference with 105 and Johnnie Esquire… word from Esquire is the NCAA is releasing the DII pairings first and then will get to the big show!

11. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:46 am

    Taking a step back and looking at the BIG picture, the team to beat–just like every other season–is Mount Union, the likely #1 seed in the North bracket.

    This year’s 10-0 Mount Union may be one of the best yet. Their first team defense has allowed 3 points all season, they have put up 6 straight shutouts and 7 total shutouts. Oh yeah, they can score, too. They have outscored opponents 225-0 in the first quarter and 423-3 in the first half this year. And those numbers have come against the OAC–generally considered one of the two toughest conferences in Division 3. These guys are good. Again.

12. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:49 am

    WOW!

13. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:49 am

    Johnnies at home vs Redlands… go Esquire GO! Talk to us!

14. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:49 am

    Wow, bracket is up! The Johnnies get a home game! They will be hosting Redlands next Saturday as the #4 seed in the Central Bracket.

15. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:49 am

    Central Bracket

    at 1. Central (10-0)
    8. Olivet (6-4)
    5. Redlands (8-1)
    at 4. St. John’s (9-1)
    3. St. Norbert (10-0)
    6. UW-Eau Claire (8-2)
    7. Concordia, Wis. (7-3)
    2. Bethel (9-1)

16. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:51 am

    This is certainly a surprise, and the NCAA has really made some moves to have this bracket like it is.

17. sjusection105

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:51 am

    This is the surprise nobody had factored in!

18. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:52 am

    Here is the bracket, by region:
    Mount Union (North) Bracket:
    8. Ithaca at 1. Mount Union
    6. New Jersey at 4. RPI
    7. Hartwick at 3. Curry
    5. Hobart at 2. St. John Fisher

19. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:52 am

    There will a lot of teams out East that are not happy about this, but the West region certainly is.

    What happened to Whitworth? The NWC is not represented this year. Wow.

20. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:52 am

    Incredible pairings for the Central bracket!

    I predicted last week Eau Claire would gain entrance albeit an 8th seed. Eau Claire debuts at #6 in the region.

    Johnnie plays Redlands and then a trip to Central… maybe!

21. sjusection105

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:54 am

    The NCAA is looking at ticket sales on this pairing. With UW-Whitewater out of this region it could be very interesting!

22. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:54 am

    Washington & Jefferson (South) Bracket:
    8. N.C. Wesleyan at 1. Washington & Jefferson
    6. Trinity at 4. Mary Hardin-Baylor
    5. Salisbury at 3. Muhlenberg
    7. Hampden-Sydney at 2. Wesley

23. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:55 am

    Life after death was the sermon this morning… my goodness, Life after a Bethel loss is a precious gift!

24. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:56 am

    Whitewater is shifted to its own bracket with other North region teams;

    at 1 UW-Whitewater (9-1)
    7. Capital (8-2)

    5. North Central (8-2)
    at 4. Franklin (9-1)

    at 3. Wabash (9-1)
    Mt. St. Joseph (9-1)

    8. Widener (8-2)
    at 2. Case Western Reserve (10-0)

25. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:57 am

    UW-Whitewater (East) Bracket:
    7. Capital at 1. UW-Whitewater
    5. North Central at 4. Franklin
    6. Mount St. Joseph at 3. Wabash
    8. Widener at 2. Case Western Reserve

26. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:57 am

    It is as if the NCAA moved Mount Union into the East Bracket and UW-Whitewater into the North Bracket, and left the remainder of the West to fight it out in the Central bracket.

    This sets the stage for a MUC-UWW rematch, but MUC has to get by the West region champ first.

27. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:58 am

    Excuse me–mislabled the Mount Union and UW-Whitewater brackets. Both teams were moved out of their regions, Mount Union to the EAST and UW-Whitewater to the NORTH!

28. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:58 am

    If this Johnnie team can’t get excited about this bracket then they deserve to lose.

29. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 11:59 am

    Everyone read MUC vs UWW.. that means an SJU vs MUC semi! Oh my goodness! The boogie man will arrive!

30. sjusection105

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:01 pm

    The West Region (Central Bracket) Champion will most likely have to play Mount Union in the National Semi-Finals, but then again if you want to be the best you have to beat the best!
    The Johnnies need to take care of business next week at home against Redlands.

    All 3 phases of the squad need to play mistake free football.

31. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:04 pm

    Concordia of WI has lost to Simpson, Greenville and North Central College of IL…

    Bethel has some very winnable games.

    Look out however for the BluGolds.

32. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:04 pm

    Redlands is, as we know from a few years ago, a solid team and a formidable program. They didn’t seem to be concerned by the cold when they visited Collegeville in the first round then, and I doubt they will be this time around.

    Their one loss was to Occidental, a 28-21 setback in early October. But they otherwise have run the table, racking up five straight wins.

33. sjusection105

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:04 pm

    Bethel has to feel great about this bracket. All Bethel has to do is keep winning and they could potenially host the region final at Royal Stadium.

34. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:06 pm

    Bethel hosts Concordia (WI), the autobid from a conference that often times gets Mount Union in the first round– so this is a very winnable game for them.

    UWEC has a date with St. Norbert’s who will love to have a home date. The winner of that game gets BU, most likely, who has an excellent chance of breaking their streak.

35. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:10 pm

    That UWEC team has to be ecstatic about making the playoffs– their two losses, both in conference (UWW and UWRF), and is still dancing, and getting a winnable draw in the first round.

    It shows a lot of respect for the WIAC and MIAC as a whole, as both conferences got favorable draws and into the playoffs.

36. DustySJU

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:13 pm

    This is one of the craziest matchups I’ve ever seen with all the shifting around. Mount Union goes to the East bracket, UWW goes to the North bracket and an 8-2 Eau Clarie team makes it in as a #6 seed.

    Had SJU won yesterday the Johnnies would have been the #1 seed in what could have been “The St. John’s Bracket”!

    Pick your poison….UWW in what could have been a West Region final or MUC in a NCAA semifinal.

    Johnnies live to play…now lets play to live!

37. JohnnieEsq

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:16 pm

    Well, that about wraps it up for us today. Thanks for joining us, and check back over the week for more content, and previews of this week’s matchup.

    It’s a great day for Johnnie football!

38. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:25 pm

    Some random bracket thoughts:
    –While it was assumed all along that the Johnnies were stuck behind UW-Whitewater in the West, St. John’s was presumably playing for the #1 seed yesterday at Bethel. With the West bracket matched up with the East (Mount Union) in the National Semifinals, the NCAA committee ranked Central as the #4 top seed.

    –Johnnie fans who are tired of the season ending against Whitewater–as it has the last two seasons–can take some solace in knowing that if it happens again, at least it will be at the Stagg Bowl. Of course, for that to happen, it would mean that the Johnnies, or some other team, would have to climb the Mount and beat the Purple Raiders in Alliance.

    –The typical Texas Travesty (the NCAA pairing two Texas teams in the first round, regardless of seeding, to save a flight) has been somewhat mitigated this year because the matchup is a #4 seed (Mary Hardin-Baylor) hosting a #6 seed (Trinity). The NCAA also dodged a pairings bullet when only one West Coast team, Redlands, made the field, meaning there would have to be a flight regardless of who they were paired with.

39. TC

    November 11th, 2007 at 12:36 pm

    Whoops, didn’t get the memo that we were wrapping things up! Here are my parting thoughts on how each bracket unfolds:

    East (Mount Union): Mount Union romps through this bracket. St. John Fisher, who challenged the Purple Raiders in last year’s semifinals, won’t provide nearly as much of a test this time around.

    South (Washington & Jefferson): Mary Hardin-Baylor, though only the #4 seed, is the team to beat in this bracket. Their blowout loss at UW-Whitewater a couple weeks ago cost them their top seed, making their road more difficult. Washington & Jefferson and #2 seed Wesley will also challenge.

    North (UW-Whitewater): The Warhawks can’t like their First Round draw, hosting #7 seed Capital. If they get past the Crusaders, UW-Whitewater should have little trouble with the rest of the field

    West (Central): We’ll obviously have a lot on this region later this week (and, hopefully, for weeks to come). I think St. John’s can play with every team in the region, which is all we can hope for. I would also not be surprised by Central, Bethel or UW-Eau Claire taking the West title.

40. Touchdown Tommy

    November 11th, 2007 at 1:10 pm

    I am speechless. The brackets could NOT have setup better for the Johnnies considering what happened yesterday in Arden Hills…

    Great matchup for Bethel to get their 1st playoff win in school history. Now or never, I’d say.